主管:中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办:应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU

Fire Science and Technology ›› 2025, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (3): 362-368.

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A multi-stream pedestrian evacuation model for subways based on hydraulic models and system dynamics

Liu Lina1, Zhang Shiyong2, Liu Qian2   

  1. (1. CUMT Engineering Consulting & Research Institute Co., Ltd. (Jiangsu), Xuzhou Jiangsu 221008, China; 2. College of Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou Jiangsu 221116, China)
  • Received:2025-01-28 Revised:2025-02-15 Online:2025-03-15 Published:2025-03-15

Abstract: In urban subway systems, the convergence of multiple pedestrian flows can lead to evacuation difficulties during emergencies. This study constructs a subway multi-stream pedestrian evacuation model based on the hydraulic model and System Dynamics (SD) theory. By combining specific case studies, it reveals the evacuation patterns at exit bottlenecks where multiple pedestrian flows converge under extreme unfavorable conditions, considering the evacuation of commercial area personnel through the station concourse. The findings reveal that: When multiple pedestrian flows converge at exit bottlenecks, evacuation efficiency demonstrates a "fast-slow-fast" trend; As occupant numbers increase, the utilization efficiency duration of emergency exits decreases from 74.02% to 64.78%, indicating reduced effective utilization time with higher crowd density; The specific flow rate at concourse exits experiences transient reduction when influenced by converging pedestrian streams from specific zones, whereas it remains stable otherwise; Compared with Pathfinder simulations, the System Dynamics model demonstrates closer alignment with actual evacuation scenarios and superior computational efficiency.

Key words: subway evacuation, multi-stream flow, hydraulic model, system dynamics method