Abstract: In order to explore the correlation between complex climate and forest fires in southwest Sichuan, this paper analyses the potential connectivity between various meteorological elements and forest fire occurrence through local-scale meteorological anomaly changes in Muli County, Liangshan Prefecture, Sichuan Province, as an example. Then, through FWI and FFDI, the historical fire risk changes in Muli County were analysed to verify the association with forest fires in Muli County. The results showed that there were different cycles of continuous increase (or decay) in barometric pressure, air temperature, humidity, wind speed, and evapotranspiration before and after the occurrence of forest fires. Meanwhile, the forest fire risk indices FWI and FFDI of Muri County showed an interannual oscillation and gradually increasing trend, and the annual average correlation coefficient (46.9%) and monthly average correlation coefficient (80.7%) of forest fire frequency with FWI in Muri County were larger than those with FFDI (annual correlation coefficient of 38.7% and monthly correlation coefficient of 53.1%). In addition, extreme anomalies in forest fire risk values are also closely related to climatic events occurring in the same period (or year). Therefore, the persistent high temperature, low humidity and windy meteorological conditions caused by climatic anomalies are one of the essential reasons for the rapid increase of forest fire risk level or major forest fire accidents.

Key words: forest fire risk, meteorological elements, FWI, fire prevention and control