Abstract: In order to comprehensively and effectively evaluate the multi-scenario damage to the surrounding area caused by the accident evolution of LPG storage tank, the structural composition of LPG storage tank system was analyzed, and the accident evolution system model was constructed by using the mutual influence relationship among energy, state and quality factors in accident evolution and system dynamics. Based on the LPG tank accident evolution system, a multi-scenario accident personal risk calculation method was established, which considers the influence of various factors in the system on the accident to calculate the personal risk value that is more in line with the actual accident consequences. Finally, the accident evolution system simulation and personal risk prediction of LPG storage tank in spherical tank area of a chemical enterprise in Huainan were carried out by using the established system model and personal risk calculation method. The results show that using the system dynamics software Vensim to simulate the accident evolution can accurately calculate the accident evolution process and results, and the multi-scenario personal risk considering the evolution of accidents can reflect the risks more realistically than the single-scenario personal risk.

Key words: LPG tank, accident evolution, individual risk, multiple scenario accident, system dynamics