Abstract: Abstract: In order to objectively predict the evolution trend of petrochemical fire scenarios under the coexistence of multiple objects, the developed petrochemical fire scenario deduction software is used to realize the objective probability deduction of scenario elements. Based on the petrochemical fire disposal organization and scenario evolution path, the trend is divided into three levels of control, stalemate and out-of-control. The probability distribution combination method is adopted to realize the prediction of the overall situation of petrochemical fires. Finally, taking a liquefied petroleum gas storage tank fire as an example, the relationship between the number and state of disaster-bearing bodies and the overall situation of petrochemical fires is obtained.

Key words: Key words: fire rescue, petrochemical fire, scenario deduction, situation prediction