Risk analysis of tank farm based on EWM-AHP and fuzzy Bayesian network

Fire Science and Technology ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (5): 634-638.

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Risk analysis of tank farm based on EWM-AHP and fuzzy Bayesian network

PENG Yu-jie1, DONG Shao-hua1, XIE Shu-yi2, DUAN Yu-hang1

(1. College of Safety and Ocean Engineering, China University of Petroleum in Beijing, Beijing 102249, China; 2. State Key Laboratory for Performance and Structure Safety of Petroleum Tubular Goods and Equipment Materials, CNPC Tubular Goods Research Institute, Shaanxi Xi'an 710077, China)

Online:2022-05-15 Published:2022-05-15

Abstract

Abstract: Abstract: As a major hazard source in the reservoir, the tank farm has complex risk factors. Effective risk analysis is crucial for the safe operation of tank farm. Combined with the actual situation of the tank farm, the entropy weight method is used to modify the risk weight value of the risk factors obtained from the hierarchical analysis, which increases the scientificity of weight data and forms a multi-level risk analysis index system. In view of the characteristics of few data sources and complex correlation of risk factors in tank farm, the prior probability of risk factors was calculated by fuzzy analysis, and the dynamic prediction of accident types and probabilities was realized by constructing Bayesian network. This method can realize the risk analysis of tank farm with few data sources and serious accident consequences.

Key words: Key words: entropy weight method, hierarchical analysis, fuzzy analysis, Bayesian network, tank farm, risk analysis

PENG Yu-jie, DONG Shao-hua, XIE Shu-yi, DUAN Yu-hang. Risk analysis of tank farm based on EWM-AHP and fuzzy Bayesian network[J]. Fire Science and Technology, 2022, 41(5): 634-638.

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Risk analysis of tank farm based on EWM-AHP and fuzzy Bayesian network

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