Abstract: This paper is to study the success probability of fire brigade extinguish the traditional village timberwork building fire and the remaining load time of element under fire. The Fire Brigade Intervention Model (FBIM) and Benichou model were combined to determine the success probability of firefighting. Based on this, Monte Carlo simulation was used to analyze the influence of relevant parameters’ uncertainty. Finally, the success probability of firefighting and the element’s remaining load time when the fire brigade intervened was. The above method was used to analyze the typical timberwork dwellings in a village. Based on the traffic data and the fire brigade training data, the distribution of the firefighting success probability and the element remaining load time was calculated. The results show that: Due to the short flashover time and long distance of firefighting, the firefighting success probability is only 44.5%. When the fire brigade arrives, the remaining load time of the floor is less than 5 minutes. From the perspective of firefighting and rescue, the firefighting distance should be shortened and the micro-fire station should be added to improve the success probability of firefighting.

Key words: timberwork dwellings, firefighting and rescue, fire brigade intervention time, flashover, Monte Carlo simulation