Abstract: The failure risk early warning of buried gas pipeline plays an important role in the formulation of prevention and control plans and the guarantee of safe operation of pipelines. In order to improve the failure risk early warning level of buried gas pipeline under the influence of multiple factors, a time-effect early warning model of the failure risk of buried gas pipeline was proposed. The model incorporates the time effect of pipeline failure risk into the construction of failure early warning system, analyzes the time effect of influencing factors of buried gas pipeline failure by using grey system theory, develops a comprehensive failure probability time effect prediction model under the influence of multiple factors, and uses the failure probability conversion function to convert the estimated failure probability into annual failure probability, so as to realize the rapid determination of failure risk level and early warning level of gas pipeline. As an example, the model is applied to the failure risk early warning of a buried gas pipeline in Changzhou. The results show that the model is efficient and reliable.

Key words: buried gas pipeline, risk early warning, failure time effect, gray neural network, failure probability