主管：中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办：应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU
消防科学与技术

消防科学与技术 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (7): 1020-1023.

• • 上一篇    下一篇

快速发展期城市地铁站客流预测与疏散能力评估

贾天耀1，成广谋2，张波2，孙春光1，徐晓玲1   

  1. 1. 浙江省应急管理科学研究院浙江省安全工程与技术研究重点实验室，浙江杭州310012；2. 杭州市地铁集团有限责任公司，浙江杭州310019
  • 出版日期:2021-07-15 发布日期:2021-07-15
  • 作者简介:贾天耀（1982-），男，山东阳谷人，浙江省应急管理科学研究院高级工程师，硕士，主要从事城市轨道交通安全技术与应急管理研究，浙江省杭州市西湖区西溪河下77 号，310012。
  • 基金资助:
    浙江省基础公益研究计划项目（LGF21E040001）

Traffic volume forecast and evacuation capacity assessment of subway station in the city rapid developing

JIA Tian-yao1, CHENG Guang-mou2, ZHANG Bo2, SUN Chun-guang1, XU Xiao-ling1   

  1. 1. Zhejiang Province Key Laboratory of Safety Engineering and Technology Research, Zhejiang Academy of Emergency Management Science and Technology, Zhejiang Hangzhou 310012, China; 2. Hangzhou Metro Group Co., Ltd., zhejiang Hangzhou 310019, China
  • Online:2021-07-15 Published:2021-07-15

摘要： 基于灰色系统理论建立灰色预测GM（1，1）模型，对城市快速发展和人口规模大幅增长的城市中（以杭州市为例）既有地铁车站客流量进行了预测。结果表明，在人口规模快速增长的城市中，地铁车站高峰小时最大断面客流量将提前14 年达到设计阶段远期高峰小时客流预测量，车站投入运营10 年后将超过设计阶段远期高峰小时客流预测量的18.58%。对不同客流强度下车站疏散能力进行模拟仿真，结果表明：当车站客流量达到设计最大客流量的10.88%时，所有人员疏散至安全区的用时将超过6 min，车站疏散能力不再满足现行规范要求。

关键词: 城市轨道交通, GM(1,1)模型, 地铁客流预测, 疏散仿真, 风险量化评估, 人口增长

Abstract: A grey prediction GM( 1,1) model is established based on grey system theory, and the traffic volume of a existing subway station in a city which has a fast development and high growth rate of population is predicted. The result shows that, the maximum cross- section traffic volume during peak hours of subway station in the city which has a rapid growth of urban population will reach its long- term design stage forecast peak hour traffic volume ahead of schedule about 14 years, and will exceed 18.58% of its long- term design stage forecast peak hours traffic volume 10 years after it was put into service. Then the evacuation capacity of subway station under different traffic volume intensity is simulated, the result indicates that when the subway traffic volume is bigger than 10.88% of its maximum design traffic volume, the time for all personnel to evacuate to safety zone will exceed 6 minutes, which means the evacuation capacity of the station will no longer meet the requirements of the current specifications.

Key words: urban rail transit, GM(1,1) model, traffic volume prediction of subway, evacuation simulation, quantitative risk assessment, population growth