关键词: 消防救援, 石油化工火灾, 情景元, 情景推演

Abstract: The methods used in the probabilistic deduction of the "scenario- response" emergency handling model have shortcomings such as strong subjectivity and insufficient pertinence. This paper takes petrochemical fire accidents as the object. Firstly, based on the analysis of the characteristic elements of the accident scenario evolution path node (scenario element), it collects more than two hundred petrochemical fire historical cases, uses text mining and transforms them into digital codes, based on database management software SQLift constructs the scenario evolution path database. Then use the loop function in the Java programming language to call the database to solve the problem of determining the path node in the scenario deduction, and further realize the problem of determining the probability value of the deduction based on the frequency idea, and develop the "Petrochemical Fire Accident Scenario Deduction System" mobile APP according to the previous thinking. Finally, a fire accident in a liquefied petroleum gas storage tank area is used as an example to verify the feasibility of the scenario deduction method and deduction software proposed in this paper.

Key words: fire rescue, petrochemical fire, scenario element, scenario deduction