主管：中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办：应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU
消防科学与技术

消防科学与技术 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (2): 271-275.

• • 上一篇    下一篇

基于CBR的危险品航空运输事故应急决策研究

张青松1，张秋月2，刘然2   

  1. 1. 民航热灾害防控与应急重点实验室，天津300300；2. 中国民航大学经济与管理学院，天津300300
  • 出版日期:2021-02-15 发布日期:2021-02-15
  • 作者简介:张青松(1977-),男,河北晋州人,民航热灾害防控与应急重点实验室,博士,主要从事飞机防火与灭火、民航危险品运输安全与事故应急研究,天津市东丽区津北公路2898 号,300300。
  • 基金资助:
    民航安全能力建设项目“危险品航空运输安全管理体系运行风险管控关键技术研究”（TRSA-20600726）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金“基于危险品情景的机场应急决策模型研究”（3122018D043）

Research on emergency decision-making of dangerous goods air transportation accident based on CBR

ZHANG Qing-song1, ZHANG Qiu-yue2, LIU Ran2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Civil Aviation Thermal Disaster Prevention and Control and Emergency Response, Tianjin 300300, China; 2. College of Economy and Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China
  • Online:2021-02-15 Published:2021-02-15

摘要：

针对危险品航空运输事故现场信息传递不及时、不全面造成应急决策不当的问题，建立危险品航空运输事故应急决策案例推理模型。以事故现场表面信息构建案例属性；应用G1法对案例属性主观赋权进行案例优选检索，使用熵权法客观赋权结合灰色关联分析进行案例相似度检索。通过实例分析，模型计算得到的最相似案例与目标案例相似度为0.671 28 且二者应急决策方案相似，表明该模型可以为危险品航空运输事故提供应急决策指导。

关键词: 危险品航空运输, 应急决策, 案例推理, G1 法, 熵权法, 灰色关联

Abstract: Aiming at the problem of improper emergency decision- making caused by the untimely and incomplete transmission of on- site information of dangerous goods air transportation accidents, a case-based reasoning model for emergency decision- making of dangerous goods air transportation accidents was established. Build case attributes with surface information on the accident site; The G1 method performs case optimization search for the subjective weighting of case attributes, and the entropy weight method combines objective weighting with gray correlation analysis for case similarity search.Through example analysis, the similarity between the most similar case calculated by the model and the target case is 0.671 28 and the emergency decision-making schemes of the two are similar, indicating that the model can provide emergency decision-making guidance for dangerous goods air transportation accidents.

Key words: air transportation of dangerous goods, emergency decision-making, CBR, G1 method, entropy method; grey correlation