关键词: 海底管道泄漏, 耦合协调, DEMATEL, RBF 神经网络, 海洋生态环境

Abstract: In order to reduce the risk of submarine pipeline leakage in the process of oil and gas transportation, the research on submarine pipeline leakage risk assessment is carried out. Firstly, based on the analysis of submarine pipeline leakage risk assessment index, the concept of trigger is introduced to analyze the formation mechanism of submarine pipeline leakage coupling risk. Secondly, through DEMATEL and coupling coordination theory, a submarine pipeline leakage risk coupling coordination model is constructed, and a submarine pipeline in the South China Sea is taken as an example to evaluate the submarine pipeline leakage risk. Finally, with the help of RBF neural network, compared with the coupling risk assessment, the results show that the coupling coordination degree has a more significant effect than the risk degree analysis. The conclusion shows that in the face of the complex and changeable marine ecological environment, in view of the leakage risk of submarine pipeline, the establishment of a coupled coordination model for risk assessment can quickly and accurately reflect the actual risk situation, and it is of guiding significance for the construction and operation of submarine pipelines and the protection of marine environment in the future.

Key words: submarine pipeline leakage;coupling coordination, DEMATEL;RBF neural network;marine ecological environment