主管：中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办：应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU
消防科学与技术

消防科学与技术 ›› 2025, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (1): 103-111.

• • 上一篇    下一篇

基于FARSITE系统的调节因子对火蔓延模拟的影响研究

田代财1, 雷佼1, 邓玉山1, 张林鹤1, 安江涛2   

  1. （1.中国科学技术大学 火灾科学国家重点实验室，安徽 合肥 230026；2.中国财产再保险有限责任公司，北京 100033）
  • 收稿日期:2024-03-08 修回日期:2024-06-03 出版日期:2025-01-21 发布日期:2025-01-15
  • 作者简介:田代财，中国科学技术大学火灾科学国家重点实验室硕士研究生，主要从事森林飞火点燃研究，安徽省合肥市蜀山区黄山路443号，230026。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目（52222605）；国家重点研发计划项目（2020YFC1511603）

Study on the influence of adjustment factor on fire spread simulation based on the FARSITE system

Tian Daicai1, Lei Jiao1, Deng Yushan1, Zhang Linhe1, An Jiangtao2   

  1. (1. State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei Anhui 230026, China; 2. China Property & Casualty Reinsurance Company Limited, Beijing 100033, China)
  • Received:2024-03-08 Revised:2024-06-03 Online:2025-01-21 Published:2025-01-15

摘要： 森林火灾中经常出现的飞火和火旋风等极端火行为，能够引燃火线前方的未燃区，造成地表火蔓延加速。本文选取2020年6月7日海南昌江县内平坦地形下的森林火灾作为研究对象，通过改变火点数量和火蔓延速率调节因子，分析FARSITE系统火蔓延模拟结果的精度。结果表明，随着调节因子的增大，预测精度呈先增大后减小的趋势。调节因子为1时，单火源条件下相交面积占实际过火区域的比例为5%；使用4个初始火点并改变火点位置，相交面积占比分别提高了10%和18%。当达到最优调节因子时，火蔓延模拟精度最高，单火源模拟的相交面积占比提高至72%，精度为0.70。合理设置火点位置和数量能提高火蔓延预测的精度，降低极端火行为或模型数据误差对预测结果的影响，但会过度预测过火面积。

关键词: FARSITE, 火蔓延, 火点数量, 火蔓延速率调节因子, 极端火行为

Abstract: In forest fires, extreme fire behaviors such as spotting and fire whirl frequently occur, which can ignite unburned areas ahead of the fire front and accelerate surface fire spread. This work selected a forest fire in Changjiang County, Hainan, on June 7, 2020, which occurred on flat terrain, as the research object. By altering the number of fire points and the rate of spread adjustment factor, the accuracy of fire spread simulation results using the FARSITE system was analyzed. The results showed that with the increase of the adjustment factor, the prediction accuracy first increases and then decreases. When the adjustment factor is 1, the intersection area under single ignition source conditions accounts for 5% of the actual burned area. Using four initial fire points and changing their positions, the intersection area proportions increased by 10% and 18%, respectively. When the optimal adjustment factor is reached, the fire spread simulation accuracy is the highest, and the intersection area proportion in the single fire source simulation increases to 72% with an accuracy of 0.70. Reasonably setting the locations and number of fire points could improve the accuracy of fire spread prediction, and reduce the impact of extreme fire behaviors or inaccuracies in model data on prediction results, but may also lead to overprediction of the burned area.

Key words: FARSITE, fire spread, number of fire points, rate of spread adjustment factor (RAF), extreme fire behavior