主管：中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办：应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU
消防科学与技术

消防科学与技术 ›› 2024, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (11): 1495-1499.

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基于复杂网络的石油储罐火灾事故链风险分析

陈慧宇1, 夏登友2,3, 臧娜4, 陈昶霖1   

  1. （1. 中国人民警察大学 研究生院，河北 廊坊 065000；2. 中国人民警察大学 救援指挥学院，河北 廊坊 065000；3. 河北省应急救援技术重点实验室，河北 廊坊 065000；4. 中国人民警察大学 涉外安保学院，河北 廊坊 065000）
  • 收稿日期:2024-03-25 修回日期:2024-05-30 出版日期:2024-11-15 发布日期:2024-11-15
  • 作者简介:陈慧宇(1998- )，男，江苏南通人，中国人民警察大学，硕士研究生，主要从事灭火救援、应急决策方面的研究，河北省廊坊市安次区西昌路220号，065000。
  • 基金资助:
    基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目（52174224）

Risk analysis of oil tank fire accident chain based on complex network

Chen Huiyu1, Xia Dengyou2,3, Zang Na4, Chen Changlin1   

  1. （1. Graduate School, China People's Police University, Hebei Langfang 065000, China; 2. Rescue Command College, China People's Police University, Hebei Langfang 065000, China; 3. Hebei Key Laboratory of Emergency Rescue Technology, Hebei Langfang 065000, China; 4. College of Foreign Security, China People's Police University, Hebei Langfang 065000, China）
  • Received:2024-03-25 Revised:2024-05-30 Online:2024-11-15 Published:2024-11-15

摘要： 为了解决石油储罐发生安全事故后情景演化过程难以预测的问题，利用复杂网络理论研究石油储罐火灾事故情景演化过程。首先，分析了72起石油储罐火灾案例，确定13个典型情景作为节点，依据情景发展演化逻辑关系构建事故链网络；然后，建立了基于复杂网络的火灾事故链风险评估模型，评估节点的重要度以及节点与节点之间连边的风险度；最后，以福建漳州古雷PX项目爆炸事故为例验证该方法的可行性与可靠性。研究表明：该风险分析模型可以揭示石油储罐火灾事故链中的关键节点和关联关系，能及时分析事故链发展方向，提高应急救援队伍应对石油储罐火灾事故的能力。

关键词: 石油储罐, 情景演化, 复杂网络, 事故链, 风险分析

Abstract: In order to solve the problem that it is difficult to predict the scenario evolution process of oil storage tank fire accident, the complex network theory is used to study the scenario evolution process of oil storage tank fire accident. Firstly, 72 oil storage tank fire cases are analyzed, 13 typical scenarios are identified as nodes, and the accident chain network is constructed according to the logical relationship of scenario development. Then, the risk assessment model of fire accident chain based on complex network is established to evaluate the importance of nodes and the risk degree of connecting edges between nodes. Finally, the explosion accident of Gulei PX project in Zhangzhou, Fujian Province was taken as an example to verify the feasibility and reliability of the proposed method. The research shows that the risk analysis model can reveal the key nodes and correlation in the oil storage tank fire accident chain, analyze the development direction of the accident chain in time, and improve the ability of emergency rescue teams to deal with oil storage tank fire accidents.

Key words: oil storage tanks, scenario evolution, complex network, accident chain, risk analysis