主管：中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办：应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU
消防科学与技术

消防科学与技术 ›› 2024, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (6): 860-866.

• • 上一篇    下一篇

气象要素与潜在林火风险关联性研究

郭瀚文, 杨小龙, 张玉春, 高云骥   

  1. （西南交通大学 消防工程系，四川 成都 611756）
  • 出版日期:2024-06-15 发布日期:2024-06-15
  • 作者简介:郭瀚文(1994- )，男，西南交通大学消防工程系博士研究生，主要从事森林火灾方面的研究，四川省成都市郫都区犀安路999号，611756。
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发项目(2022YFC3005704)

Study on the correlation between meteorological elements and potential forest fire risk

Guo Hanwen, Yang Xiaolong, Zhang Yuchun, Gao Yunji   

  1. (Department of Fire Protection Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Sichuan Chengdu 611756, China)
  • Online:2024-06-15 Published:2024-06-15

摘要： 为探究川西南地区复杂气候与森林火灾之间的关联性，以四川省凉山彝族自治州木里藏族自治县（以下简称“四川省凉山州木里县”）为例，通过局部规模的气象异常值变化，分析了各气象要素与森林火灾的潜在联系性。再通过FWI与FFDI，分析木里县历史火险变化，验证了其与木里县森林火灾的关联性。结果表明：森林火灾发生前后气压、气温、湿度、风速、蒸发量出现不同周期的连续增加（或衰减）。同时，木里县森林火险指数FWI与FFDI呈现出年际震荡且逐渐增大的趋势，且木里县林火频数与FWI的年均相关系数（46.9%）、月均相关系数（80.7%）均大于FFDI（年相关系数38.7%、月相关系数53.1%）。此外，林火风险值出现极端异常还与同期（或同年）发生的气候事件密切相关。因此，气候异常事件所导致的持续高温、低湿、多风的气象条件是森林火险等级快速升高或重大森林火灾事故的本质原因之一。

关键词: 林火风险, 气象要素, FWI, 火灾防控

Abstract: In order to explore the correlation between complex climate and forest fires in southwest Sichuan, this paper analyses the potential connectivity between various meteorological elements and forest fire occurrence through local-scale meteorological anomaly changes in Muli County, Liangshan Prefecture, Sichuan Province, as an example. Then, through FWI and FFDI, the historical fire risk changes in Muli County were analysed to verify the association with forest fires in Muli County. The results showed that there were different cycles of continuous increase (or decay) in barometric pressure, air temperature, humidity, wind speed, and evapotranspiration before and after the occurrence of forest fires. Meanwhile, the forest fire risk indices FWI and FFDI of Muri County showed an interannual oscillation and gradually increasing trend, and the annual average correlation coefficient (46.9%) and monthly average correlation coefficient (80.7%) of forest fire frequency with FWI in Muri County were larger than those with FFDI (annual correlation coefficient of 38.7% and monthly correlation coefficient of 53.1%). In addition, extreme anomalies in forest fire risk values are also closely related to climatic events occurring in the same period (or year). Therefore, the persistent high temperature, low humidity and windy meteorological conditions caused by climatic anomalies are one of the essential reasons for the rapid increase of forest fire risk level or major forest fire accidents.

Key words: forest fire risk, meteorological elements, FWI, fire prevention and control