主管：中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办：应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU
消防科学与技术

消防科学与技术 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (12): 1822-1825.

• • 上一篇    下一篇

传统村落木结构民居灭火救援成功概率分析

左林阳1，李培剑2，宋志刚1，张 健1   

  1. （1. 昆明理工大学 建筑工程学院，云南 昆明 650500； 2.云南省消防救援总队，云南 昆明 650500）
  • 出版日期:2021-12-15 发布日期:2021-12-15
  • 作者简介:左林阳（1996-），男，云南保山人，昆明理工大学建筑工程学院硕士研究生，主要从事建筑火灾、消防救援研究，云南省昆明市呈贡区吴家营街道景明南路727号，650500。
  • 基金资助:
    云南省重点研发计划项目(202003AC100001)；丽江市科技计划项目(2020LJSFK005)

Analysis on the success probability of fire fighting and rescue in traditional village timber work dwellings

ZUO Lin-yang1, LI Pei-jian2, SONG Zhi-gang1, ZHANG Jian1   

  1. (1. Faculty of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Yunnan Kunming 650500, China; 2. Yunnan Fire and Rescue Brigade, Yunnan Kunming 650500, China)
  • Online:2021-12-15 Published:2021-12-15

摘要： 为研究消防队扑救传统村落木结构建筑火灾的成功概率及火灾下建筑构件剩余承载时间，结合消防队介入模型（FBIM）和Benichou模型确定消防队灭火成功概率，在此基础上利用Monte Carlo模拟分析相关参数不确定性的影响，最终得到灭火救援成功概率和介入时构件的剩余承载时间。使用上述方法分析了某传统村落典型木结构民居，在实测交通流数据和消防队业务训练数据的基础上，计算得到灭火成功概率和构件剩余承载时间的概率分布，结果表明：由于木结构民居轰燃时间较短、消防行车距离较远，该村落的灭火成功概率仅44.5%，消防队到达时，楼板剩余承载时间不到5 min。从灭火救援角度考虑，提出了应缩短消防行车距离、增设微型消防站以提升灭火救援成功率的改进措施。

关键词: 木结构民居, 消防救援, 消防介入时间, 轰燃, Monte Carlo模拟

Abstract: This paper is to study the success probability of fire brigade extinguish the traditional village timberwork building fire and the remaining load time of element under fire. The Fire Brigade Intervention Model (FBIM) and Benichou model were combined to determine the success probability of firefighting. Based on this, Monte Carlo simulation was used to analyze the influence of relevant parameters’ uncertainty. Finally, the success probability of firefighting and the element’s remaining load time when the fire brigade intervened was. The above method was used to analyze the typical timberwork dwellings in a village. Based on the traffic data and the fire brigade training data, the distribution of the firefighting success probability and the element remaining load time was calculated. The results show that: Due to the short flashover time and long distance of firefighting, the firefighting success probability is only 44.5%. When the fire brigade arrives, the remaining load time of the floor is less than 5 minutes. From the perspective of firefighting and rescue, the firefighting distance should be shortened and the micro-fire station should be added to improve the success probability of firefighting.

Key words: timberwork dwellings, firefighting and rescue, fire brigade intervention time, flashover, Monte Carlo simulation