埋地燃气管道失效风险的时间效应预警模型

消防科学与技术 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (12): 1780-1783.

埋地燃气管道失效风险的时间效应预警模型

朱庆杰1，易善文1，陈艳华2，刘亚婷1

（1.常州大学江苏省油气储运技术重点实验室，江苏常州 213164；2.华北理工大学河北省地震工程研究中心，河北唐山 063210）

出版日期:2021-12-15 发布日期:2021-12-15
作者简介:朱庆杰（1966-），男，河北唐山人，常州大学石油工程学院教授，博士，主要从事油气储运安全技术方面的研究，江苏省常州市武进区滆湖路，213164。
基金资助:
河北省自然科学基金项目（E2020209072）；国家自然科学基金面上项目（51378172）

Failure risk warning of buried gas pipeline based on time effect

ZHU Qing-jie1, YI Shan-wen1, CHEN Yan-hua2, LIU Ya-ting1

(1. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Storage and Transportation Technology, Changzhou University, Jiangsu Changzhou 213164, China; 2. Hebei Research Center for Earthquake Engineering, North China University of Science and Technology, Hebei Tangshan 063210, China)

Online:2021-12-15 Published:2021-12-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 埋地燃气管道失效风险预警在制定防控预案保障管道安全运行中占据重要地位，为提高多因素影响下埋地燃气管道的失效风险预警水平，提出埋地燃气管道失效风险的时间效应预警模型。该模型将管道失效风险的时间效应纳入失效预警体系构建中，采用灰色系统理论分析埋地燃气管道失效影响因素的时间效应，开发多因素影响下的综合失效概率时间效应预测模型并应用失效概率转换函数将估计失效概率转换为年失效概率，实现燃气管道失效风险级别与预警等级的快速判定。作为实例将该模型应用于常州市埋地燃气管道的失效风险预警，结果证明该模型高效可靠。

关键词: 埋地燃气管道, 风险预警, 失效时间效应, 灰色神经网络, 失效概率

Abstract: The failure risk early warning of buried gas pipeline plays an important role in the formulation of prevention and control plans and the guarantee of safe operation of pipelines. In order to improve the failure risk early warning level of buried gas pipeline under the influence of multiple factors, a time-effect early warning model of the failure risk of buried gas pipeline was proposed. The model incorporates the time effect of pipeline failure risk into the construction of failure early warning system, analyzes the time effect of influencing factors of buried gas pipeline failure by using grey system theory, develops a comprehensive failure probability time effect prediction model under the influence of multiple factors, and uses the failure probability conversion function to convert the estimated failure probability into annual failure probability, so as to realize the rapid determination of failure risk level and early warning level of gas pipeline. As an example, the model is applied to the failure risk early warning of a buried gas pipeline in Changzhou. The results show that the model is efficient and reliable.

Key words: buried gas pipeline, risk early warning, failure time effect, gray neural network, failure probability

朱庆杰, 易善文, 陈艳华, 刘亚婷. 埋地燃气管道失效风险的时间效应预警模型[J]. 消防科学与技术, 2021, 40(12): 1780-1783.

ZHU Qing-jie, YI Shan-wen, CHEN Yan-hua, LIU Ya-ting. Failure risk warning of buried gas pipeline based on time effect[J]. Fire Science and Technology, 2021, 40(12): 1780-1783.