主管:中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办:应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU

消防科学与技术 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (11): 1617-1621.

• • 上一篇    下一篇

高层建筑火灾事故应急能力量化评估

周思宇,吴 洁,邢志祥,黄安麒   

  1. (常州大学 环境与安全工程学院,江苏 常州 213164)
  • 出版日期:2021-11-15 发布日期:2021-11-15
  • 通讯作者: 邢志祥(1967-),男,常州大学环境与安全工程学院教授。
  • 作者简介:周思宇(1996-),女,江苏盐城人,常州大学环境与安全工程学院硕士研究生,主要从事城市公共安全、消防安全、化工安全等方面的研究工作,江苏省常州市常州大学科教城校区明行楼,213164。
  • 基金资助:
    基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC0810701);江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目(KYCX20_2589)

Quantitative evaluation of emergency response capability of high-rise building fire accident

ZHOU Si-yu, WU Jie,XING Zhi-xiang, HUANG An-chi   

  1. School of Environmental and Safety Engineering, Changzhou University, Jiangsu Changzhou 213164, China
  • Online:2021-11-15 Published:2021-11-15

摘要: 为提高城市建筑火灾事故应急能力评估准确性,构建了一套应急能力评估指标体系。结合层次分析法制定百分制扣分式量化评估标准;采用主成分分析法进行降维处理;基于多元线性回归法和支持向量机法建立模型。结果表明:高层建筑火灾事故应急能力评估指标体系能够有效实现指标定量化处理,两种模型预测得分较为接近,均适用于城市高层建筑火灾应急能力评估。

关键词: 高层建筑火灾, 应急能力评估, 主成分分析法, 多元线性回归法, 支持向量机法

Abstract: To improve the accuracy of the evaluation for urban building fire accident emergency response capability, a set of emergency capability evaluation index system was constructed. Combined with the analytic hierarchy process to formulate a percentile deductible quantitative evaluation standard, the principal component analysis was used for dimensionality reduction processing; the model was established based on multiple linear regression and support vector machine. The results indicated that the evaluation index system of high-rise building fire emergency response capability can effectively realize the quantitative processing of indicators. The prediction scores of the two models have an insignificant gap, and both of them are suitable for the evaluation of urban high-rise building fire emergency capability.

Key words: Key words high-rise building fire, emergency capability assessment, principal component analysis method, multiple linear regression method, support vector machine method