主管：中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办：应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU
消防科学与技术

消防科学与技术 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (11): 1571-1574.

• • 上一篇    下一篇

基于DEMATEL-ISM的液氨泄漏事故风险分析

杨德鑫，许开立，李季硕   

  1. （东北大学 资源与土木工程学院，辽宁 沈阳 110819）
  • 出版日期:2021-11-15 发布日期:2021-11-15
  • 通讯作者: 许开立(1965-)，男，东北大学资源与土木工程学院教授，博士生导师，主要从事系统安全理论与安全技术、系统可靠性、危险源辨识控制与评价等研究。
  • 作者简介:杨德鑫(1997-)，男，东北大学资源与土木工程学院硕士研究生，主要从事系统安全工程与技术、风险分析研究，辽宁省沈阳市和平区文化路三巷11号，110819。

Risk analysis of liquid ammonia leakage accident based on DEMATEL-ISM

YANG De-xin, XU Kai-li, LI Ji-shuo   

  1. College of Resource ＆ Civil Engineering, Northeastern University, Liaoning Shenyang 110819, China
  • Online:2021-11-15 Published:2021-11-15

摘要： 为减少液氨泄漏事故的发生，从人、机、环、管4个方面构建了液氨泄漏事故影响因素指标体系；利用决策实验室分析法（DEMATEL）计算了15个影响因素的中心度和原因度，确定了关键影响因素及影响因素的因果属性；结合解释结构模型（ISM）构建了液氨泄漏事故影响因素递阶层次结构模型，确定了各影响因素间的内在联系；并以某乳制品企业为例，验证DEMATEL-ISM模型的有效性。结果表明，DEMATEL-ISM模型可直观体现事故影响因素间的相互影响关系，并确定液氨泄漏事故的关键影响因素，为企业安全决策提供可靠依据。

关键词: 液氨泄漏, DEMATEL, 中心度, 影响因素

Abstract: In order to reduce the occurrence of liquid ammonia leakage accident, this paper constructs the index system of influencing factors of liquid ammonia leakage accident from four aspects of man,machine,enviroment and management. The centrality and cause degree of 15 influencing factors were calculated by using Decision Laboratory Analysis (DEMATEL), and the key influencing factors and the causal attributes of influencing factors were determined. Combined with the Interpretative Structure Model (ISM), the hierarchical structure model of influencing factors of liquid ammonia leakage accident is constructed, and the internal relationship among the influencing factors is determined. Taking a dairy enterprise as an example, the effectiveness of DEMATEL-ISM model is verified. The results show that the DEMATEL-ISM model can directly reflect the mutual influence relationship between the accident influencing factors, and determine the key influencing factors of liquid ammonia leakage accident, so as to provide a reliable basis for enterprise safety decision-making.

Key words: liquid ammonia leakage, DEMATEL, centrality, influencing factors