主管：中华人民共和国应急管理部
主办：应急管理部天津消防研究所
ISSN 1009-0029  CN 12-1311/TU
消防科学与技术

消防科学与技术 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (9): 1322-1326.

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基于Bow-tie正态云模型的LNG储罐风险分析

李维东1，周德红1，肖振航1，张 明2   

  1. 1.武汉工程大学 资源与安全工程学院，湖北 武汉 430074；2.湖北省安全生产宣传教育中心，湖北 武汉 430071
  • 出版日期:2021-09-15 发布日期:2021-09-15
  • 作者简介:李维东（1996-），男，湖北荆门人，武汉工程大学资源与安全工程学院硕士研究生，主要从事化工安全评价、风险控制与应急管理、消防安全、安全系统理论与计算机应用，湖北省武汉市雄楚大道693号，430074。

Risk analysis of LNG storage tank based on Bow-tie normal cloud model

LI Wei-dong1, ZHOU De-hong1, XIAO Zhen-hang1, ZHANG Ming2   

  1. 1. School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Hubei Wuhan 430074, China; 2. Hubei Safety Production Publicity and Education Center, Hubei Wuhan 430071, China
  • Online:2021-09-15 Published:2021-09-15

摘要： 为解决Bow-tie模型无法量化LNG储罐风险的问题，建立以LNG储罐的高风险场所、高风险工艺、高风险设备、高风险物质、高风险人员这五高风险为一级要素的Bow-tie模型；引入正态云模型，以风险的可能性与严重度为云滴建立云模型，结合Python语言可视化编程生成云图，计算云贴近度，确定各要素风险等级；最后以某企业LNG储罐区进行实例分析。结果表明：Bow-tie模型中高风险场所为风险最高的一级要素，LNG储罐预冷工艺为风险最高的二级要素，其压力和温度是造成LNG泄漏的关键。通过安装压力-温度自动传感系统，可以有效预防和控制事故，可为储罐动态风险管控提供依据。

关键词: LNG储罐, Bow-tie模型, 正态云模型, Python可视化, 风险分析

Abstract: In order to solve the problem that the Bow-tie model cannot quantify the risk of LNG storage tanks, a Bow-tie model was established with five high-risk elements of LNG storage tanks: high-risk sites, high-risk processes, high-risk equipment, high-risk substances, and high-risk personnel. Then the normal cloud model is introduced to establish a cloud model for the cloud drop based on the possibility and severity of risk. Combining with Python language visual program, a cloud map was generated and the cloud closeness was calculated to determine the risk level of each element. Finally, analysis was carried out with the example of an enterprise LNG storage tank farm. The results show that the high-risk sites in the Bow-tie model are the first-level element with the highest risk, and the LNG storage tank pre-cooling process is the second-level element with the highest risk. The two basic events of pressure and temperature are the keys to LNG leakage. The installation of pressure-temperature automatic sensing system can effectively prevent and control accidents. It provides a basis for dynamic risk management and control of storage tanks.

Key words: LNG storage tank, Bow-tie model, normal cloud model, Python visualization, risk analysis